Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.016956 0.019214 0.021664 0.024523 0.027766 0.031334 0.035559
2025-06-15 0.013620 0.016778 0.020504 0.025230 0.031071 0.038063 0.047085
2025-06-22 0.011134 0.014511 0.018728 0.024389 0.031804 0.041207 0.054074
2025-06-29 0.009578 0.013073 0.017643 0.024068 0.032895 0.044634 0.061494
2025-07-06 0.008219 0.011671 0.016369 0.023245 0.033089 0.046728 0.067158
2025-07-13 0.007648 0.011258 0.016348 0.024076 0.035561 0.052078 0.077785
2025-07-20 0.007106 0.010807 0.016201 0.024665 0.037681 0.057049 0.088269
2025-07-27 0.006687 0.010482 0.016183 0.025409 0.040055 0.062551 0.100019
2025-08-03 0.006109 0.009847 0.015623 0.025241 0.040965 0.065839 0.108545
2025-08-10 0.005640 0.009334 0.015195 0.025221 0.042074 0.069488 0.117928
2025-08-17 0.005143 0.008725 0.014551 0.024776 0.042417 0.071879 0.125372
2025-08-24 0.004850 0.008427 0.014386 0.025103 0.044069 0.076558 0.137120
2025-08-31 0.004482 0.007974 0.013934 0.024915 0.044847 0.079868 0.146889
2025-09-07 0.004294 0.007822 0.013986 0.025623 0.047279 0.086300 0.162954
2025-09-14 0.003887 0.007236 0.013218 0.024769 0.046773 0.087360 0.169063
2025-09-21 0.003598 0.006842 0.012761 0.024443 0.047206 0.090163 0.178712
2025-09-28 0.003270 0.006345 0.012070 0.023607 0.046578 0.090884 0.184310
2025-10-05 0.003185 0.006307 0.012241 0.024451 0.049303 0.098303 0.204030
2025-10-12 0.003075 0.006210 0.012287 0.025049 0.051578 0.105011 0.222897
2025-10-19 0.002990 0.006154 0.012408 0.025805 0.054234 0.112701 0.244536
2025-10-26 0.002812 0.005893 0.012095 0.025635 0.054934 0.116397 0.257889
2025-11-02 0.002663 0.005680 0.011864 0.025614 0.055946 0.120823 0.273242
2025-11-09 0.002484 0.005390 0.011449 0.025162 0.055976 0.123128 0.284014